The new Golden Globes are back! Last year’s rebranded show may have been a trainwreck, but the actual winners and nominees were incredibly accurate to the overall awards race. It essentially shut down all the doubters of the Globes’ influence. Because of this reform, we really only have one year’s worth of data to use as precedent for this year’s predictions.

In preparation for the show this Sunday, I'm predicting the winners in each category. Each of the nominees is ranked in terms of their likelihood to come out on top. Some of the categories have a significant divide between the top and runner-up spots and some categories are neck-and-neck. No matter how the results shake out, we should all be in for an exciting night that kicks off the next phase of the awards season.

Best Motion Picture - Drama

1. The Brutalist

2. Conclave

3. A Complete Unknown

4. Dune: Part Two

5. Nickel Boys

6. September 5

   
   

This category gets whittled down pretty quickly once you consider that this is the only category representing Nickel Boys and September 5, and Dune: Part Two is also only to be found in Best Original Score. A Complete Unknown is a medium contender at best, which leaves Conclave and The Brutalist to duke it out. I’m going with The Brutalist for its higher critics' scores and grandiosity. But this decision will be swimming through my head every minute until that envelope is opened.

Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

1. Emilia Pérez

2. Anora

3. Wicked

4. The Substance

5. A Real Pain

6. Challengers

   
   

You don’t rack up ten total nominations (the most ever for a film in this category) and not be the favorite to win the ultimate prize. Emilia Pérez also hasn’t stumbled once throughout the entire season, making it nearly impossible to bet against it. However, the same can pretty much be said for Anora, so the door is still slightly open for an upset.

Best Director

1. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)

2. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)

3. Edward Berger (Conclave)

4. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)

5. Sean Baker (Anora)

6. Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light)

   
   

With seemingly every other category being a toss-up, it’s to see to have one that feels like a virtual lock. You can’t talk about The Brutalist without heralding the work of Brady Corbet, a sentiment that’s worked in the past few years for people like Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) and Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer). I’d be incredibly shocked if anyone other than him ascended the stage.

Best Screenplay

1. Conclave (Peter Straughn)

2. Anora (Sean Baker)

3. A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg)

4. The Brutalist (Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold)

5. The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)

6. Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard)

   
   

This category is already the hardest to predict the nominees for as you can only fit six out of the 12-15 that are vying for the two categories at the Oscars. Now it’s even tougher as only one can win. The momentum seems to be with Conclave at this point in the season, although Anora would probably be the betting favorite.

Best Lead Actor - Drama

1. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)

2. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)

3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)

5. Daniel Craig (Queer)

6. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

   
   

Is this the moment Timothée Chalamet is finally anointed as the star of the next generation? I think so. The buzz for his performance and public persona for A Complete Unknown has been nothing short of electric during the voting window, and he’s earned enough respect within the industry over the years. Adrien Brody could just as easily get the win, so it’s still a very close race.

Best Lead Actress - Drama

1. Angelina Jolie (Maria)

2. Fernanda Torrest (I'm Still Here)

3. Nicole Kidman (Babygirl)

4. Kate Winslet (Lee)

5. Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door)

6. Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl)

   
   

With most of the Oscar contenders over in Musical or Comedy, this category feels a little light on surefire bets. I’ve been inching closer to picking Fernanda Torres as an upset, but I just can’t quite pull the trigger over Angelina Jolie. I’ll probably look back on that decision and wonder why I was so blind. There’s also the possibility of 20-time nominee Nicole Kidman or 14-time nominee Kate Winslet getting the win.

Best Lead Actor - Musical or Comedy

1. Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)

2. Glen Powell (Hit Man)

3. Hugh Grant (Heretic)

4. Sebastian Stan (A Different Man)

5. Jesse Plemons (Kinds of Kindness)

6. Gabriel LaBelle (Saturday Night)

   
   

It’s a relatively crowded and Oscar-less field compared to previous years. The nominee with the most overall support is Jesse Eisenberg. But then Hugh Grant is the most likely Oscar nominee of this bunch, and Glen Powell is the kind of breakout star that this group loves to reward. I’ll stick with the acclaim that Eisenberg has been getting, and treat this award as a summation for all the work he did on A Real Pain.

Best Lead Actress - Musical or Comedy

1. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)

2. Mikey Madison (Anora)

3. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)

4. Demi Moore (The Substance)

5. Zendaya (Challengers)

6. Amy Adams (Nightbitch)

   
   

The law of these Musical or Comedy acting categories is to always bet on the actor/actress with the best chance of being Oscar-nominated, as there’s usually only 1-2 here. That logic kind of breaks this year as we have four women with a realistic chance of being Oscar-nominated, so take your pick and understand that you’re more likely to be wrong than right. I’m going with Gascón based on her win at the European Film Awards and her ability to make history in this category.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

2. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)

3. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)

4. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

5. Yura Borisov (Anora)

6. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

   
   

Culkin has been the sweeper of the season, racking up notable wins at each of the major critics’ groups (NYFCC, LAFCA, NBR). It would feel foolish to predict that train will derail now, especially with him coming into this specific show as the reigning victor of the award for Best Actor – Television Series Drama.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Zoë Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

2. Ariana Grande (Wicked)

3. Isabelle Rossellini (Conclave)

4. Margaret Qualley (The Substance)

5. Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez)

6. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)

   
   

Flip a coin between Saldaña and Grande and you’d have as much confidence as I do. For the past several months I’ve been feeling very confident about Saldaña’s chances to sweep the season. But Grande’s rapid ascendancy has made that a difficult sentiment to maintain. Even if I still think Saldaña will win the Oscar when all is said and done, Grande winning the Globe would be a realistic bump in the road.

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Emilia Pérez (France)

2. All We Imagine as Light (India)

3. I'm Still Here (Brazil)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Iran)

5. The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)

6. Vermiglio (Italy)

   
   

Last year, half of the nominees also appeared in the Best Motion Picture - Drama category, making it incredibly difficult to decide which film had the most reliable competitive advantage. This year feels a lot more clear with Emilia Pérez pulling in ten total nominations (the most for a musical or comedy). But this category also loves curveballs, like in 2023 when the film with the lowest odds, Argentina, 1985, pulled off the upset and beat RRR and All Quiet on the Western Front. Does the acting nomination for Fernanda Torres spell something for I’m Still Here?

Best Animated Feature Film

1. The Wild Robot

2. Flow

3. Inside Out 2

4. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

5. Memoir of a Snail

6. Moana 2

   
   

Flow has been overperforming at the regional critics’ awards so far, so this is not an open-and-shut case for The Wild Robot like we originally thought a few weeks ago. I still don’t have much reason to doubt The Wild Robot, but the win relatively unexpected win for The Boy and the Heron last year does make me wonder if we’re in for a pretty big surprise.

Best Original Score

1. The Brutalist (Daniel Blumberg)

2. Conclave (Volker Bertelmann)

3. Emilia Pérez (Camille & Clément Ducol)

4. Challengers (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross)

5. Dune: Part Two (Hans Zimmer)

6. The Wild Robot (Kris Bowers)

   
   

Volker Bertelmann may have won the Oscar for All Quiet on the Western Front a few years ago, but the Globes did not nominate him. This could be the moment they give him the overdue win for Conclave. I’m still going to stick with Daniel Blumberg’s thunderous score for The Brutalist, which has been one of the most acclaimed aspects of the film.

Best Original Song

1. El Mal (Emilia Pérez)

2. Mi Camino (Emilia Pérez)

3. Kiss the Sky (The Wild Robot)

4. Beautiful That Way (The Last Showgirl)

5. Forbidden Road (Better Man)

6. Compress/Repress (Challengers)

7. 
   

“El Mal” and “Mi Camino” have been joined at the hip during the nomination phase of the season, and now it’s time to see which one is actually going to win. I’m leaning towards “El Mal” since it is the standout musical sequence of the film that’s been featured in the marketing. And despite having seen the film twice, I struggle to recollect “Mi Camino.” Could something like “Kiss the Sky” or “Beautiful That Way” split the difference and pull off an upset? I wouldn’t be too surprised if that happened.

Cinematic and Box Office Achievement

1. Wicked

2. Deadpool & Wolverine

3. Inside Out 2

4. Gladiator II

5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

6. The Wild Robot

7. Twisters

8. Alien: Romulus

   
   

We’ve only got one year’s worth of precedent for this category, although this year seems a little easier due to the lack of a true Barbenheimer phenomenon. Barbie was last year’s winner, an enormous hit both critically and culturally. Being that it’s one of these films to have a nomination in the Best Motion Picture categories, Wicked seems to fit that mold the closest this year.