One of the most chaotic award seasons in recent memory is finally coming to a close, and it looks like it’ll be a photo finish. For almost the entire nine-month duration since Cannes, we’ve been going back and forth on who’s got what it takes to be the top dog. Enough drama has been created, ended, and recreated to match a whole season of one of those “The Real Housewives” shows.

Just as I mentioned in my nominations predictions update, the key to the Oscars is focusing your attention on what matters. So you’re going to see little analysis in categories with clear frontrunners and more in tighter races. Notable precursors that will be used to determine likely winners are the Golden Globes (GG), Critics Choice Awards (CCA), Screen Actors Guild (SAG), BAFTAs, and any category-specific guild award.

I’d also like to point out that I will be predicting the three short categories, but won’t be producing analysis since I have none to offer. I’ll just be going with the GoldDerby consensus.

Best Picture

1. Anora

2. Conclave

3. The Brutalist

4. Emilia Pérez

5. A Complete Unknown

6. Wicked

7. I'm Still Here

8. The Substance

9. Nickel Boys

10. Dune: Part Two

After successive years of watching Everything Everywhere All at Once and Oppenheimer run the table, it's been fun to witness what this year has brought. Anora secured its frontrunner status after it had a whirlwind weekend where it picked up the CCA, PGA, and DGA awards. But then the winds shifted towards Conclave, which then took home the BAFTA and SAG Ensemble. Conclave's predicted wins for Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing were enough for Argo, and Anora's predicted wins for Director and Original Screenplay were enough for Parasite. If Anora were to lose, the combination of precursor wins it has would place it alongside Brokeback Mountain and Saving Private Ryan in the pantheon of Oscar upsets. That's something I can't predict will happen again.

Best Director

1. Sean Baker (Anora)

2. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)

3. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)

4. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)

5. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

It's been a slugfest between Brady Corbet and Sean Baker; the former winning the Golden Globe and BAFTA, and the latter netting the DGA. The DGA award is the most predictive of the bunch, and people like Tom Hooper (The King's Speech) and Alejandro G. Iñárritu (The Revenant) have gone on to win the Oscar with only that award in their arsenal. It's still hard to pick Baker because Corbet's work is so much more aligned with what this branch rewards. I said the same thing when it came to Sam Mendes and Bong Joon-ho a few years back, and I was wrong to make the more conventional choice. The tide is with Anora more than it is with The Brutalist, so I'll go with that and bite my nails until the very end.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Anora

2. A Real Pain

3. The Substance

4. The Brutalist

5. September 5

For a brief moment, it seemed that The Substance was gaining some momentum after its win at the CCA. But that stopped once A Real Pain won the BAFTA. All this division means that I'll default to the WGA winner and Best Picture frontrunner, Anora. Of course, the fact that it's been unable to handily win this category across so many shows means that there's some weakness, so maybe we're in for a surprise.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Conclave

2. Nickel Boys

3. A Complete Unknown

4. Emilia Pérez

5. Sing Sing

Just as I said during the nomination predictions, the choosing of four other nominees to lose to Conclave is merely a formality. Peter Straughan's screenplay has won the Globe, CCA, and BAFTA. It was not eligible for the WGA award, which means that the winner there, Nickel Boys, gets to be the unofficial runner-up.

Best Lead Actor

1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)

2. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)

3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

4. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)

5. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

With A Complete Unknown getting four total nominations at SAG compared to the single mention for The Brutalist, it was no surprise that Timothée Chalamet claimed victory there. If he had won somewhere else between the Globes, CCA, or BAFTA, then I would be picking him here. But Brody took all those other awards, and The Brutalist received a lot more love here. Still, it would not be a surprise if Chalamet won considering this category continually falls head over heels with biopic performances and equally admired A Complete Unknown.

Best Lead Actress

1. Demi Moore (The Substance)

2. Mikey Madison (Anora)

3. Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)

4. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)

5. Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)

Demi Moore has won the Golden Globe - Comedy, CCA, and SAG awards; Mikey Madison has the BAFTA, and Fernanda Torres has the Golden Globe - Drama. Madison does have the power of the Best Picture frontrunner on her side, which would be more decisive if The Substance and I'm Still Here weren't also beloved and nominated for Best Picture as well. I think that Torres will siphon enough votes from Madison, and Moore will claim her final victory.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

2. Yura Borisov (Anora)

3. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)

4. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)

5. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

We all know it's going to be Kieran Culkin winning this award. Let's move on and spend our energy elsewhere.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

2. Ariana Grande (Wicked)

3. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)

4. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)

5. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)

The one thing that the lovers and haters of Emilia Pérez can agree on is that Zoe Saldaña delivers a great performance, a sentiment that's carried her to wins at all the major precursors (GG, CCA, BAFTA, SAG). She's also delivered some great speeches as of late, which will make sure she doesn't become one of the victims of the controversies surrounding the film.

Best Cinematography

1. The Brutalist

2. Nosferatu

3. Maria

4. Dune: Part Two

5. Emilia Pérez

The American Society of Cinematographers gave their top prize to Edward Lachman for Maria. It's not a surprising victory considering the legendary status that Lachman carries within that profession. But it's also a little surprising since Maria has greatly underperformed on the awards front, as evidenced by its sole nomination being in this category. Nosferatu won the CCA and The Brutalist got the BAFTA. Given that the latter award has some Oscar overlap, I'll go with that. Lol Crawley's work in The Brutalist is also more in line with the grand scale of previous winners like Dune and Oppenheimer.

Best Film Editing

1. Conclave

2. Anora

3. Emilia Pérez

4. The Brutalist

5. Wicked

The not Oscar-nominated Challengers won the CCA, and the ACE awards are after the Oscars, which means we're flying pretty blind into this category. Conclave won the BAFTA and is the likely ACE - Drama frontrunner, which is just enough to convince me it'll win here. I'd also watch out for Anora given that it'll likely win ACE - Comedy and has the Best Picture frontrunner boost. This is going to be one of the most decisive categories of the night.

Best Original Score

1. The Brutalist

2. Conclave

3. Emilia Pérez

4. The Wild Robot

5. Wicked

The Golden Globes and CCA threw a wrench into this category by awarding their prize to Challengers, which was not nominated at the Oscars. That means the BAFTA winner, Daniel Blumberg (The Brutalist), is the precursor favorite heading into the night. Volker Bertelmann (Conclave) took down equally stiff competition when he beat Justin Hurwitz's score for Babylon a few years back. But the fact that he lost at the BAFTAs despite Conclave winning the top prize shows that Blumberg's work is more beloved this year.

Best Original Song

1. El Mal (Emilia Pérez)

2. The Journey (The Six Triple Eight)

3. Mi Camino (Emilia Pérez)

4. Never Too Late (Elton John: Never Too Late)

5. Like a Bird (Sing Sing)

With sixteen total nominations across thirty-five years, Diane Warren has to win at least once, right? Surely she'll win once within the next few years, but how am I supposed to predict that when history tells me it's very unlikely? "El Mal" from Emilia Pérez has already won the Golden Globe and the CCA, giving it every reason to be favored here.

Best Sound

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Wicked

3. A Complete Unknown

4. Emilia Pérez

5. The Wild Robot

It's been a pretty split race all season. A Complete Unknown won the main prize at the Cinema Audio Society, Dune: Part Two won the Sound Editing prize at MPSE, as did Wicked for Music Editing. I'm thinking the two music-heavy films will cancel each other out, allowing for Dune: Part Two to repeat its victory from the first film. It also won this award over Wicked at the BAFTAs, with A Complete Unknown not even being nominated.

Best Production Design

1. Wicked

2. Nosferatu

3. Conclave

4. The Brutalist

5. Dune: Part Two

Wicked won the CCA, BAFTA, and ADG - Sci-Fi/Fantasy Film awards, giving it a clear edge. Conclave did win the Contemporary category at the Art Directors Guild, as well as Nosferatu in the Period category, giving them both of them at least a chance.

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked

2. Conclave

3. Nosferatu

4. A Complete Unknown

5. Gladiator II

The exact same circumstances from Best Production Design are repeated here, and so is my pick for who will win the Oscar.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. The Substance

2. Wicked

3. Nosferatu

4. Emilia Pérez

5. A Different Man

   
   

Horror makeup has historically been undervalued through this category's history, so the much-predicted victory for The Substance will be more than deserved. It's won the CCA, BAFTA, and multiple prizes at the Make-Up and Hair Stylists Guild, and also aided in the transformation for Demi Moore's possible Oscar-winning performance.

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

3. Wicked

4. Better Man

5. Alien: Romulus

This category has been sewn up ever since Dune: Part Two delayed its release from November 2023 to February 2024. Further proof has been provided from its victories at CCA and BAFTA, as well as its mighty haul at the Visual Effects Society awards. However, the top prize at the latter ceremony went to Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. But ape fans can't get their hopes up, as this scenario has played out for each of three previous Apes films, each one of them losing at the Oscar.

Best Animated Feature

1. The Wild Robot

2. Flow

3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

4. Inside Out 2

5. Memoir of a Snail

The circumstances of this year's race in this category are nearly a repeat from last year's battle between Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and The Boy and the Heron, with The Wild Robot and Flow taking the spots of the former and the latter, respectively. But I think the opposite result is going to come true this year. Flow doesn't have the BAFTA win that The Boy and the Heron got, and one could make the argument that the love for the legendary Hayao Miyazaki was worth far more than any precursor. The Wild Robot is also helped by the fact that it isn't a sequel like Spider-Verse was, which this category tends to dislike unless it's from the Toy Story franchise.

Best International Feature

1. Emilia Pérez (France)

2. I'm Still Here (Brazil)

3. Flow (Latvia)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

5. The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)

Until this year, no film has ever been nominated for both Best International Feature and Best Picture and lost the former award, meaning that either Emilia Pérez or I'm Still Here will become a victim of circumstance and carry that unwanted distinction. Emilia Pérez won this award at both the Golden Globes and BAFTAs, and has a whopping ten more total nominations than I'm Still Here.

But that doesn't mean this is an open-and-shut case, as the recent controversies surrounding Emilia Pérez star Karla Sofía Gascón, as well as the general vitriol towards the film itself, is a major thorn in its side. There's also the fact that I'm Still Here getting that Best Picture nomination illustrates that there's a lot of support for it, which seems to only keep growing.

Best Documentary Feature

1. No Other Land

2. Porcelain War

3. Sugarcane

4. Black Box Diaries

5. Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat

As usual in this category, the precursor leader, Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, hasn't even been nominated here. This gives the edge to the DGA-winner, Porcelain War. However, the critical swell of support for No Other Land cannot be denied, especially when coupled with the extremely compelling fact that it's still fighting to secure US distribution. I'm going to lean with where everyone's heart seems to be, although it would not surprise me if that doesn't turn out to be true.

Best Animated Short Film: Wander to Wonder

Best Documentary Short Film: The Only Girl in the Orchestra

Best Live-Action Short Film: A Lien