Decoding the Fall Festival Lineups

With both the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) and Venice International Film Festival announcing their slates this week, the fall festival rush has officially begun. And with the premiere status designations supplied by TIFF, we’ve got a pretty good idea of the films that will be bowing in the mountains of Telluride right between the two other festivals. The puzzle still isn't fully clear when it comes to the overall Oscar race, but we’re a lot closer to realizing which pieces the studios are prioritizing.

Similarly to last year (although that could be chalked up to the dual SAG-WGA strike), it looks like no film will be making the trip to all three festivals. Telluride famously doesn’t reveal their lineup until the day before their festival begins on August 29, but Venice director Alberto Barbera hinted that Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door and Luca Guadagnino’s Queer will be making their world premieres on the Lido during the back half of the festival, meaning they won’t be eligible for Telluride. Other Venice titles such as Walter Salles’ I’m Still Here, Justin Kurzel’s The Order, and Athina Rachel Tsangari’s Harvest were all announced as North American premieres in TIFF’s Gala/Special Presentation announcement, so Pablo Larraín’s Maria might be the only Oscar-buzzed Venice title to pop up at Telluride.

But fear not Telluride attendees, as the mountain-based festival will also have its crop of world premieres as hinted by the TIFF announcement; including Better Man, Conclave, The Friend, The End, The Piano Lesson, and Piece By Piece. Netflix’s total absence from Venice comes as quite a surprise considering their relative dominance over the past decade, but the presence of The Piano Lesson at both Telluride and TIFF shows that they won’t be out of the awards race altogether. They’ll also be reintroducing Emilia Perez after it won the Jury Prize and Best Actress prize (for its ensemble) at this year’s Cannes Film Festival.

Other Cannes titles that are confirmed to be playing at both Telluride and Toronto include the Palme d’Or winning Anora, Grand Prize winning All We Imagine as Light, and Andrea Arnold’s Bird. TIFF won’t be announcing its Centerpiece program until August, which usually contains a few more films that had their premieres at the spring and summer festivals (Sundance, Berlin, Cannes).

TIFF will also host world premieres for films from several high-profile directors such as Ron Howard (Eden), Mike Leigh (Hard Truths), and Marielle Heller (Nightbitch). Leigh has been overdue for an Oscar for decades now. However, the combination of the rumor that his film was rejected by both Cannes and Venice and the delayed release to mid-January by Bleecker Street does give pause to those aspirations. Ironically, the TIFF title with the highest Oscar potential at the moment is Sing Sing, which debuted at the festival last year and is currently in theaters.

Skipping the fall festival trifecta altogether is Steve McQueen’s Blitz, which will be opening the London Film Festival on October 9th, and then closing the New York Film Festival the following day. Both festivals haven’t been the best breeding ground for Oscar success over the years, but the decision to start there makes sense considering the London setting for the film and McQueen’s unwavering loyalty to NYFF throughout his career. It’s a high-risk, high-reward strategy by Apple as they could avoid the usual fall festival glut and have space all to themselves, or come out too late and fail to find space in the race.

Searchlight Pictures will likely be in the same position with their Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown. The last-second nature of the announcement for its unspecified December release could be interpreted as a small act of surrender for Nightbitch and A Real Pain, both of which never seemed poised to repeat the same level of success that the distributor is known for. Depending on how the premiere of Nightbitch goes at TIFF, look for them to accelerate a Gala premiere for James Mangold's film at AFI Fest in late October.